Initial model calculations by the ECMWF give reason to hope for a mild and windy winter in Europe. This would be a welcome relief for gas and electricity.
Our CAP2 climate expert took a closer look at the calculations and weather maps of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for the forecast of general winter weather. According to this, the chances are good that the winter in Europe will be mild, windy and humid.
The positive NAO phase indicates a stronger pressure difference than usual between Icelandic low and Azores high. Winds from the west dominate, bringing warmer air. At the same time, the position of the jet stream suggests that storms tend to move more frequently and more strongly across the Atlantic.
From October onwards, the forecast quality of the models will once again improve significantly; we will definitely stay tuned.